The Last Summit

On December 15, 2024, ECOWAS will hold its final ordinary summit of the year amidst mounting tensions surrounding the imminent withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. These three states, united under the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), have openly defied ECOWAS sanctions against their military regimes and criticized its perceived proWestern orientation. If finalized, this departure could redefine West Africa’s geopolitical landscape.

Recent events illustrate the deepening divide: on December 11, 2024, the ECOWAS Parliament advocated for an extension of the withdrawal timeline to enable deeper dialogue and avert the fragmentation of the Community. In contrast, a communiqué issued by AES following a ministerial meeting in Niamey on December 13 reaffirmed the irreversibility of the decision, highlighting strategic priorities centered on economic integration and security cooperation. Key issues: The withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger carries far-reaching geopolitical, economic, and security implications. Together, these countries span 2.3 million square kilometers and play a critical role in the fight against jihadist insurgencies. Their exit would weaken ECOWAS’ ability to coordinate effective responses to regional crises. Economically, AES' realignment toward partners such as Russia and China could shift trade flows and diminish ECOWAS’ collective influence. ......